Speculative bombshell awaits speculative fuse
When Jim Neal revealed last weekend that he is gay, he set off a wave of political speculation.Neal, a Chapel Hill corporate financial adviser, is the only Democrat to announce for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole. The politically chatty immediately began questioning what impact this bombshell would have on the race.
Let’s go through some of the questions.
The first is whether this is a bombshell at all. Other than other political writers, both print and blog, I’ve heard only one person discuss it – a woman who was obviously a political person, too.
That this is not a bombshell can be explained several ways: Most likely, few people know who he is and, somewhat likely, the general public is getting accustomed to this kind of news.
There is a chance, however small, that Neal will walk into the Democratic nomination without a fight. Will he win the nomination by default?
My guess is no. My first reason for saying that has nothing to do with Neal’s being gay. His problem is that he is an unknown who moved back from New York only two years ago. There has to be a politician, or a political wannabe, who sees this open Democratic field for the opportunity it is.
While an openly gay candidate might be able to win, the conventional thinking among Democrats is certain to be that it is too risky to try. That’s the other reason he’ll have an opponent. There are already reports that national Democrats have renewed their efforts to get a better-known candidate. Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan, who recently took herself out of the race, is under renewed pressure from national Democrats to change her mind.
Why is Neal’s candidacy risky? Some Democrats will fear that they have more to lose with a gay candidate than just this Senate race. They will worry that a gay statewide candidate can harm the whole ticket, especially with conservative Democrats.
Would the Republicans use Neal’s sexual orientation in the campaign? The issue would certainly be discussed privately, in the gossip mill and in non-public campaigning. Whether it became a more public issue, one that the GOP, Dole or other party leaders addressed, is not certain. Republicans have to be very careful what they say about gay politicians these days, considering the Washington scandals involving Republicans. On the other hand, they might be pressured, by some of their supporters, to come out and make a public issue of it.
Would Democrats use the issue? It is very likely that Neal’s campaign would appeal to gays and gay-rights groups for financial backing. Gays are becoming a key Democratic constituency. He would be very unwise to appeal to them as the gay candidate, however.
If there is a primary, would Neal’s opponent use the issue against him, arguing that his sexuality could end up being a political disaster for the whole ticket? The Democratic gossip chain would be active, too, as a candidate sought to garner support with conservative Democrats. But to do so directly would be suicide.
Finally, and maybe most potentially damaging for the Democrats, is the question of what happens in the state’s gay community if the Democratic Party does enlist a high-profile, or at least a medium-profile, straight candidate to seek the nomination? Will this infuriate gay activists? Will they see this as a slight to their participation and loyalty to the party? My guess is that they would.
At first glance, Neal’s orientation would appear to be the lock for Dole should they face each other in the general election. But it raises many questions, and the election is still a year away. Don’t count on anything.
Source: journalnow.com